Trump-fueled dollar strength is putting megacaps stocks in a pinch

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Rising dollar pressures earnings as companies from Amazon to McDonald's signal more pain ahead.

general :: 2025-02-18 :: source - yahoo finance

By Alexandra Canal

(AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

The US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) has surged over the past six months — and its rapid rise has impacted a slew of corporate earnings so far this season.

Companies ranging from Big Tech behemoths to consumer-facing brands have mentioned foreign-exchange headwinds in both their fourth quarter results and forward-looking guidance, a trend that analysts previously warned could occur.

"Alongside recent US dollar strength, the share of S&P 500 companies mentioning FX has risen across 4Q earnings calls," Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin wrote in a note to clients last week.

Historically, a strong dollar adversely impacts companies that do most of their business overseas. That's because it leads to slower revenue and earnings growth over time, due to unfavorable foreign-exchange conversions.

To that point, megacap tech generates a significant amount of revenue overseas. Apple (AAPL) reported roughly 58% of overall revenue from international sales in its most recent quarter. And the percentage of overseas sales from other Magnificent Seven players — like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta (META) — came in at roughly 50% or higher for all of 2024.

Virtually all of those companies issued warnings linked to the dollar's strength in their respective earnings releases and calls. Even Amazon (AMZN), which generated just over 23% of revenue overseas in its latest quarter, reported an approximate $900 million headwind from foreign exchange. That was "about $700 million higher than what we had anticipated," the company said in an earnings release.

As a result, the e-commerce giant said first quarter revenue should only grow between 5% and 9% — potentially, the slowest revenue growth quarter in its history.

"This guidance anticipates an unusually large, unfavorable impact of approximately $2.1 billion, or 150 basis points, from foreign exchange rates," Amazon said.

But it's not just tech companies feeling the impact.

McDonald's (MCD) said it expects "foreign currency to be a full year headwind to 2025 EPS." Meanwhile, Coca-Cola (KO) issued similar guidance, forecasting comparable EPS percentage growth "to include a 6% to 7% currency headwind," and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) predicted a $1.7 billion hit to full year sales.

The greenback's positive price action has largely been driven by two main catalysts: President Donald Trump's election and the subsequent Republican sweep; and the recalibration of future easing by Federal Reserve in light of strong economic data.

After hitting a September low, the US Dollar Index has rallied over 7% and is hovering near the two-year highs it reached in January. The index — which measures the dollar's value relative to a basket of currencies (the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc) — has climbed by around 4% since the presidential election.

Trump's proposed policies include high tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for corporations, and curbs on immigration. That has led to more bullishness around the dollar, largely due to their protectionist nature.

Most economists agree that the bulk of those policies, especially Trump's tariff plans, will lead to higher inflation over time and force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. That suggests the cycle surrounding bullish dollar sentiment remains intact.

On Monday, Trump announced global 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, to take effect on March 12. Later in the week, he ordered that federal agencies study reciprocal tariffs on trading partners.

Tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada are set to come next month, while 10% duties on China have already been implemented.

"The combination of strong US economic growth, solid US asset returns, and the threat of tariffs have supported dollar strength in the later part of 2024 and the beginning of this year," Goldman said. The firm predicts the dollar will appreciate by another 3% over the next twelve months.

Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.