Traders Expect a Big Move in Tesla’s Share Price After Earnings

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Traders Expect a Big Move in Tesla’s Share Price After Earnings.

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By Colin Laidley

Artur Widak / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Tesla is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the closing bell Tuesday. Investors are strapping in for another big post-earnings stock move in the EV maker's shares.

Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla (TSLA) stock to move approximately 9.3% in either direction in the days after its report. A move of that magnitude would put Tesla stock in a range of $263.82 to $218.92; it closed Thursday around $241.

Tesla has historically been among the most volatile stocks in the S&P 500 around earnings releases. Over the past four quarters, its stock has averaged a 12.3% move the day after reporting earnings. The range of post-earnings moves is wide—shares jumped nearly 22% after reporting last October and slumped more than 12% in the prior quarter.

Investors are heading into this earnings season mired in uncertainty. President Trump has paused most of the tariffs he announced earlier this month, but has left in place massive duties on Chinese goods and made conflicting statements about being open to exemptions. Economic data has remained strong, but some economists warn that damage from tariffs is bound to show up eventually.

According to JPMorgan analysts, the options market is pricing in some of the largest average implied moves around earnings since the first quarter of 2020.

For Tesla, sales have fallen across the globe, weighed down by a consumer backlash to CEO Elon Musk’s verbal and financial support of international far-right movements. Analysts and investors, meanwhile, have voiced concerns that Musk’s work with the White House is distracting him from leading his companies. Tesla’s access to foreign markets, meanwhile, is at risk of becoming a bargaining chip for other countries negotiating trade deals with Trump.

Tesla's shares nearly doubled in the month and a half after Trump won re-election with Musk’s backing. They have since tumbled about 50%, putting them back where they were before Election Day.

With Tesla’s EV sales under pressure, investors will be looking for encouraging updates on artificial intelligence, seen as its next growth driver. Musk may confirm this week that Tesla is on track to launch its first commercial robotaxi network in Austin, Texas, this June. He may also elaborate on the company’s plans to develop Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, on a commercial scale.