Nike earnings: Wall Street expecting weak fiscal Q4 results but signs of hope going forward

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Nike earnings: Wall Street expecting weak fiscal Q4 results but signs of hope going forward.

companies :: 2025-06-26 :: source - yahoo finance

By Brooke DiPalma

Nike is set to report its fiscal fourth quarter earnings after market close today, and Wall Street is bracing for more poor results.

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik wrote in a note to clients that he expects results from the quarter, which ended on May 31, to be "painful." The sneaker giant is attempting to make progress in its turnaround while navigating President Trump's tariffs.

After Nike's fiscal third quarter results, which were announced late March, CFO Matthew Friend warned tariffs, excess inventory, and uncertainty around consumer confidence would whack fourth quarter gross margins by approximately 400 to 500 basis points. He warned revenue would be "down." Last year's fiscal fourth quarter revenue came in at $12.61 billion.

Wall Street, per Boomberg, expects fourth quarter revenue to fall nearly 15% to $10.72 billion, alongside adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share, which are 87% lower compared to the $1.01 it reported in the same quarter last year. Same-store sales at Nike-owned stores are expected to tick lower yet again, down 2.62%. That would be less than the 3% decline it posed in the prior quarter.

Nike is facing deteriorating consumer confidence as it aims to get consumers back in stores and competes with rivals like On (ONON) and Hoka (DECK).

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index for June fell 5.4 basis points to 93 in June from 98.4 in May as concerns about the effects of tariffs on prices and the economy remained top of consumers' minds.

Shares are down nearly 36% year over year but have rebounded from April 8 lows when President Trump imposed additional tariffs of 104% on China before pausing them in May. There is currently still a 10% tariff on imports from most countries in place alongside a 30% tariff on goods from China.

But Nike seems to have prepared for this. The company has been diversifying its manufacturing base since Trump's first term in office. In 2024, it produced 18% of its apparel and 16% of footwear in China, compared to 26% and 29%, respectively, in 2016.

The company is also banking on certain innovations like the launch of Vomero 18, Jordan Retros, A'One, and a collaboration with Kim Kardashian. Nike is also patching up its wholesale partnerships with the likes of Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) and Macy's (M) after it decided to focus on its direct-to-consumer business.

"Progress will be the key theme" for the call with investors Thursday after market close, Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernández wrote to clients in a note.

"Nike seems several quarters away from reaching stabilization in the business, but is making the right moves by cleaning up inventory, rebalancing the product portfolio by increasing newness and reducing the focus on classic franchises, and strengthening relationships with wholesale partners," Fernández wrote.

Meanwhile, Konik of Jefferies said he expects a "V-shaped rebound" in fiscal year 2027, with 2026 expectations "already muted."

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Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.