ASML Falls Most Since April After CEO Walks Back Growth Forecast

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ASML Falls Most Since April After CEO Walks Back Growth Forecast.

stock :: 2025-07-16 :: source - bloomberg

By Dasha Afanasieva

(Bloomberg) -- ASML Holding NV shares plunged the most since April after Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet walked back the company’s growth forecast for next year, blaming trade disputes and global tensions.

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“We continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments,” Fouquet said in a statement on ASML’s quarterly results Wednesday. “Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”

ASML’s shares fell as much as 8.5% to €646.30 in Amsterdam on Wednesday, the biggest intraday decline since April 7. They have fallen 34% in the last year.

ASML is the only company that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which produce the advanced semiconductors that power artificial intelligence data centers and smartphones. Chips are currently exempt from US tariffs but there’s uncertainty over how the equipment ASML produces will be affected. The Trump administration’s chaotic rollout has roiled markets and made planning major spending difficult.

ASML forecast third-quarter net sales between €7.4 billion ($8.6 billion) and €7.9 billion. That’s below the €8.2 billion average analyst estimate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It expects 15% revenue growth for the year.

Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said ASML’s clients are delaying commitments until there’s more clarity on tariff and export controls.

“Customers are watching that landscape but are currently faced with that uncertainty,” Dassen said on a call with reporters. “As soon as that becomes clearer, then also their investment plans will become clearer.”

US restrictions on tech exports to China, combined with tariffs on consumer electronics, are hurting many of ASML’s biggest clients, which include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel Corp.

Intel’s new CEO is slashing expenses in a restructuring plan. Bloomberg News reported in April the company could cut more than a fifth of its workforce.

Samsung Electronics Co., another major customer, reported its first fall in profit since 2023 last week as it lost market share in the AI market.

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

ASML faces a potential downward revision in consensus sales after CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that the chip-tool maker might not be able to grow sales in 2026. Assuming the company’s 2026 sales are roughly flat vs. 2025, consensus could lower expectations by 7%. Yet as Tokyo Electron expects the wafer fabrication equipment market to climb by a double-digit percentage in 2026, we believe there’s a possibility ASML could report solid sales growth for the year. — BI analysts Masahiro Wakasugi and Takumi Okano

Despite ASML’s downgraded outlook for next year, Fouquet said the company’s “AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong.”

ASML is poised to benefit from hundreds of billions of dollars of investment pouring into AI data centers. Its EUV machines are needed to produce Nvidia Corp.’s most cutting-edge chips, which are the backbone of much of the planned AI infrastructure.

ASML reported bookings of €5.5 billion in the second quarter, beating estimates.

Quarterly orders are a closely watched metric because they feed into future sales, but are also very lumpy. ASML plans to stop reporting the figure next year, arguing orders don’t always reflect its business momentum.

Signs of a thaw between the Trump administration and Beijing could also bode well for ASML. On Tuesday, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. said they would restart sales of some chips to China that had previously been blocked, after gaining assurances from Washington that the shipments would be approved.

ASML faces a number of restrictions on its sales to China, which was the company’s second-biggest market last quarter, with 27% of system sales. It has never been able to sell its EUV machines to China because of US-led restrictions. Last year, the Dutch government also blocked immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems to the country after pressure from the US.

There’s no suggestion so far that ASML machines would see a relaxation of the rules, but it would benefit from higher demand from customers selling more to China.

Dassen said Wednesday it would be positive for chip demand if Washington lifts restrictions on some AI processors.

However, the regulatory climate in the US remains volatile. A verdict from a so-called “Section 232” investigation into semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment launched by the Trump administration in April is expected soon.

The investigation could lead to additional levies on the industry and “that really constitutes the uncertainty right now,” Dassen said.

--With assistance from Sarah Jacob.