By KIT NORTON

Tesla cyber truck / Getty images

Tesla (TSLA) vehicle insurance registrations in China fell sequentially last week and remain well below last year's total during the same time frame in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Tesla stock flirted with a traditional buy point during Monday's stock market action.

Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 10,300 for the week of Aug. 18-24, down about 26.4% from 14,000 the previous week, according to data compiled by independent China auto industry trackers.

Eight weeks into Q3, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up around 48% compared to last quarter but have dropped 12% vs. a year ago. So far this year, Tesla vehicle registrations in China have declined nearly 7%.

Last week, Tesla launched a new, slightly larger, six-seat Model Y L in China, with a starting price of around $47,180. CEO Elon Musk said the new vehicle would come to the U.S. at the earliest by late 2026 and warned the new vehicle may "never" come.

"This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the U.S. until the end of next year," Musk wrote on X last week. "Might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America."

Overall, analyst consensus sees Tesla global vehicle sales declining 7% to 430,000 in the third quarter, according to FactSet. That would mark a 12% increase vs. Q2 and would be the highest level in 2025.

However, only one analyst has revised Q3 2025 vehicle deliveries since late July. Analysts broadly expect the third quarter to be better for EV deliveries in the U.S. based on the idea that consumers will take advantage of the Biden-era $7,500 EV tax credit before it goes away at the end of September.

Tesla Stock Trend

TSLA shares edged down around 0.5% before the opening bell for Tuesday's stock market, retreating from a buy point. On Monday, Tesla stock rose briefly above a 348.98 buy point in a cup-with-handle base, MarketSurge charts show. This comes after Tesla stock jumped 6.2% on Friday, rebounding from its 50-day moving average, reclaiming the 200-day line and breaking the downtrend in the handle, offering an aggressive entry.

Reflecting retail investor interest in TSLA, Tesla stock was one of the top tracked by the subreddit investor group r/WallStreetBets. Website ApeWisdom showed TSLA as the fourth top-trending issue on r/WallStreetBets as of Tuesday.

Tesla stock enters Tuesday's stock market up 12.4% in August, trading in a cup-with-handle base. The current base formed within a much-larger consolidation.

The relative strength line has lagged since late May and the end of last year, reflecting lagging Tesla performance vs. the S&P 500.

Tesla earnings are also on track for a third straight annual decline.

In late July, TSLA undercut its 50-day and 200-day moving averages as Musk warned of a "few rough quarters" ahead in the Q2 conference call.

As of Monday's stock market close, Tesla stock was up around 46% since the April 22 Q1 conference call, lifted by robotaxi bets. Shares are down about 14% for the year, and 30% below their all-time high of 488.54.

Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 3.71%. The ATR metric, available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool, gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily stock market action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.

Investors can keep tabs on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist, the IBD 50 list of top growth stocks and IBD SwingTrader along with the IBD Sector Leaders list.

Tesla stock has a 61 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The stock also has a 78 Relative Strength Rating and a 54 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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This article was first featured on Investor's business daily