By Laura Matthews
A smartphone with a displayed NVIDIA logo is placed on a computer
motherboard. REUTERS
(Reuters) - Options traders are pricing in about a $260 billion swing in Nvidia's (NVDA.O) market value following the chipmaker's second-quarter earnings expected on Wednesday, U.S. options market data showed.
Nvidia
options implied a roughly 6% swing for the shares in either direction
following the results, which will be reported after markets close on
Wednesday, according to the data.
That is below the 7% long-term average move, suggesting that investors
may now have a better handle on what to expect as the company matures.
"The
ripples out of Nvidia might be more interesting than the actual move
for Nvidia," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at
Susquehanna, a market maker. "A lot of these really high-flyer,
speculative AI names have come off a lot, but Nvidia is basically back
right below its all-time high."
Should
the chipmaker's results exceed expectations, Murphy said that would
"support some of the harder hit, more speculative areas of the AI
trade."
Over
the last 12 quarters, Nvidia's implied earnings move averaged 7.7%,
while the average actual move was closer to 7.6%, according to data from
ORATS.
After a huge rally that helped lift markets this year, the technology sector pulled back a bit this month on fading enthusiasm for those stocks.
Traders are now eying Nvidia earnings to see if its $4 trillion market valuation is justified. Additionally, the potential impact on its forecasts from a recent revenue-sharing deal with the U.S. government will be closely watched.
Shares
of Nvidia, the semiconductor giant at the heart of the AI trade, have
gained about 34% this year, and closed up 1.02% on Monday at $179.81.
The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.43% to 6,439.32 on the day and was up 9.5% year-to-date.
"It's been (on) an amazing run," said Matt Amberson, founder of ORATS. "It's just a Goldilocks time for Nvidia."
Reporting by Laura Matthews in New York; Editing by Alden Bentley and Matthew Lewis
This week on Reuters