The bank outlined a range of possible outcomes for the metal, with a baseline forecast for a surge to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026; a so-called tail-risk scenario of $4,500; and an estimate of almost $5,000 if just 1% of the privately-owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold.

Bullion has been one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, rallying by more than a third and hitting a record earlier this week. The advance has been powered by central-bank accumulation and bets that the Fed will soon start to reduce US interest rates. Additional support has come more recently as President Donald Trump moved to assert greater control over the Fed, including a push to oust Governor Lisa Cook.

“We estimate that if 1% of the privately owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 an ounce, assuming everything else constant,” the analysts said. “As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space.”

The Goldman note — entitled “Diversify Into Commodities, Especially Gold” — did not elaborate on recent developments at the Fed, including the move against Cook, or President Trump’s criticisms of policy decisions.

Still, as challenges to the US central bank’s standing have mounted, senior figures in global markets have expressed concern about the possible consequences. Among them, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Fed losing its independence would pose a “serious danger” to the world.

Spot gold was last near $3,540 an ounce, paring an intraday drop. It touched a record above $3,578 on Wednesday.

(Updates gold price, move in final paragraph.)

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