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Stocks Are Outrunning Tariff Risks as Earnings Expectations Rise.

stock :: 2025-09-19 :: source - bloomberg

By Natalia Kniazhevich

US stocks are trading at record levels with earnings season right around the corner, and improving expectations for Corporate America’s profit growth indicate that the rally can keep going.

Among the companies in the S&P 500 Index that provided guidance for their third-quarter results, more than 22% were expecting to beat analysts’ expectations — the highest reading in a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. In addition, the share of firms issuing worse-than-expected profit forecasts was the lowest in four quarters as well.

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The improving profit outlook flies in the face of what many Wall Street pros had been expecting as the initial wave of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump started to hit.

“People have been crying wolf regarding tariffs, but the wolf has yet to appear,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “And the real question is, has the wolf been delayed or eliminated? It seems like corporations are absorbing most of the tariffs costs.”


Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post 6.9% earnings growth in the third quarter, up from 6.7% at the end of May, Bloomberg Intelligence data show. The improving sentiment is a sign of rising confidence in the businesses’ ability to withstand Trump’s tariffs.

Among the biggest optimists, 3M Co. raised its profit expectations and said it has put measures in place to mitigate tariff-related costs, including production shifts and pricing changes. Expedia Group Inc. lifted its full-year outlook based on stronger demand from consumers. And just last week, Oracle Corp. gave a robust forecast for its cloud-infrastructure business, sending its stock soaring to its best day in the market since 1992.

Conservative Expectations

Investors are getting out in front of these numbers as corporate earnings outlooks tend to be on the conservative side, even when they’re rising. Actual results have exceeded end-of-quarter estimates in 63 of the last 65 quarters, data from CFRA show. The actual-versus-estimate margin was 7.1 percentage points last quarter, and over the last 65 quarters the median outperformance was 4.8 percentage points, according to CFRA.

There are other bullish catalysts for profits, in particular the Federal Reserve embarking on a new interest-rate cutting cycle. With the economy remaining resilient, lower borrowing costs are expected to improve margins for Corporate America, which should spill over into their results.

“We should see the continued earnings growth amid declines in Treasury yields and US gross domestic product remaining fairly solid,” Stovall said.

The impact of reduced interest rates typically builds, with equity prices rising more in the second year of the cycle than the first. Assuming there’s no recession, the S&P 500 is up an average of almost 27% in the second year of rate cuts, compared with a 14% gain in the first year, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. US equity thematic research.

Lower rates have historically provided meaningful support for earnings, as they lift consumer spending, capital investments, M&A and buybacks, JPMorgan analysts led by Ken Goldman wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

Historically, 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have posted gains in the second year of a rate reduction cycle, with technology and financials leading, CFRA data show. This time around, capital goods, transports and construction materials companies are seen as the biggest beneficiaries, with additional upside in autos, clean energy, utilities, real estate and technology, according to JPMorgan.

“Most sectors are expected to see broad support for equity valuations, especially those with high debt leverage, rate-sensitive demand, or capital-intensive business models,” the analysts wrote.

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