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Stock Bulls Can’t Get Enough of S&P as Rally Enters 'Manic' Zone.

stock :: 2025-10-03 :: source - bloomberg

By Natalia Kniazhevich

The New York Stock Exchange.

The louder the alarm bells are blaring about the stock-market rally getting excessive, the more investors appear to be tuning them out.

In a market that goes from one record to the next every four days, Wall Street seems too busy chasing the upside to worry about risks like a government shutdown and stretched valuations. A sentiment gauge compiled by Barclays Plc has been sitting near a level that indicates exuberance. A similar Bloomberg Intelligence measure is back to a “manic” zone that’s preceded lukewarm returns in the past.

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Acting on sentiment indicators alone — which have on and off suggested risk appetites have gone too far — would have meant missing out on a rally that’s pushed the S&P 500 to 27 records since June. Few are willing to stick out their necks and bet on the rally’s end when optimism over artificial intelligence keeps propelling the stock market to new highs.

“It is tough to fight the tsunami of optimism now as a disciplined investor until some meaningful negative shock emerges,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management. “Sentiment is elevated but we can stay extended for awhile.”

The Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index, which measures readings of breadth, inter-stock correlations and relative performance of high-volatility shares, has stayed above 0.6 for two consecutive months, reaching a so-called “manic” zone.

When it happened in the past, the Russell 3000 Index has proceeded to gain 2.9% over the next three months, according to data compiled by BI’s Michael Casper.

“The market can undoubtedly keep going in a manic condition as it takes a while for it to build the top,” Casper said, adding that he’s calling it “a very early warning signal.”

“There’s not much concerning out there right now,” he added.

When the gauge swings into what BI dubs “panic” territory, the Russell 3000 averages a 9% gain in the next 90 days.

Animal spirits in the stock market come as investors keep pouring cash into artificial intelligence bets and amid optimism the Federal Reserve will keep lowering interest rates. At the same time, uncertainty about the government shutdown looms large, the labor market continues to soften and equity valuations have reached levels seen in prior market bubbles.

Traders appear undeterred, at least for now, with the S&P 500 Index closing at a fresh record on Thursday in its fifth consecutive up day.

“Stocks have benefited from a significant shift from the Fed highlighted by Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole in late August with rate cuts being the catalyst for a continued run,” said Walter Todd, president and chief investment officer of Greenwood Capital Associates.

Optimism is on display in the options market as well. Over the last 20 sessions, an average of 40 million call contracts have traded per day, by far the most on record, data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk going back to 2010 show.

“The market is feeling a little frothy now,” said Gilbert at Integrity. “But the AI story stocks and the adjacent industries are eliciting huge FOMO feelings, so with every tick that we go higher more marginal buyers flood into the market.”

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