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Treasuries Extend Rally as US Bank Angst Bolsters Rate-Cut Bets.

treasuries & bonds :: 1day ago :: source - bloomberg

By Masaki Kondo, Ruth Carson and Alice Atkins

Treasuries extended gains, with front-end yields trading at the lowest level in over three years, as US regional bank jitters bolstered bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

Two-year yields fell as much as five basis points to 3.37%, the lowest level since August 2022. The move came as five-year yields sank to 3.50%, the lowest level in a year, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped below 4%.

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The flight to Treasuries is part of a broader wave of haven buying sweeping through global markets, with concern growing that problem loans disclosed by two US regional banks may point to a broadening crisis.

“The rally we’re seeing in Treasuries today is a hunt for havens story,” said Anna Wu, cross-asset strategist at Van Eck Associates. “There’s arguably some knee-jerk reaction amid spikes of uncertainty from the credit woes.”


European and UK government bonds mirrored the moves. German 10-year yields dropped as much as four basis points to 2.53%, the lowest level since June. Meanwhile, UK two- and 10-year yields fell as much as five basis points to 3.80% and 4.45% respectively.

“Classical flight-to-quality patterns are back,” said Christoph Rieger, head of rates and credit research at Commerzbank AG, adding that bund yields could drop below 2.5%. “No obstacles appear to be standing in the way of the firming upward trend,” in bonds.

Angst around US regional banks is adding to a number of worries for investors, with the government shutdown and simmering trade tensions also weighing on the outlook for global growth.

Traders boosted bets on US interest-rate cuts to price as much as five quarter-point reductions by the end of next year, with around a 30% chance of a sixth.

Federal Reserve officials reinforced wagers on more policy easing. Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that rates can continue to decline in quarter-point increments, while his counterpart Stephen Miran advocated a larger reduction.


“In the absence of official data, investors focused on negative news flow and increased bets on Fed easing,” Eugene Leow, senior rates strategist at DBS Bank Ltd., wrote in a note. “We maintain that US yields will have a downward bias in the near term, a trend that could turn more acute if sentiment worsens.”

Read more on the UST market: Basis Trade Helps Mask Who Owns $1.4 Trillion of Treasuries

--With assistance from Neha D'silva.

(Updates market moves, adds context.)

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