Why odds are increasing that the government shutdown could last into November

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Why odds are increasing that the government shutdown could last into November.

watchlist :: 2025-10-19 :: source - yahoo finance

By Ben Werschkul

A telling indicator of where the current government shutdown stands can be found in a word that is increasingly being uttered across various forums in Washington: November.

Odds are increasing that the current funding shortfall, which began Oct. 1, may continue into next month as both gridlocked lawmakers and analysts try to figure out how the standoff ends.

Some lawmakers are even beginning to express worries that the Thanksgiving travel season in late November could be at risk.

Veda Partners' Henrietta Treyz offered only a slightly sooner timeline to her consulting firm's clients, writing this week that early November is the next likely milestone for when the mounting pressure to end the shutdown may force lawmakers to the table.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson at a news conference on the government shutdown at the US Capitol on Wednesday. (Anna Moneymaker/GettyImages)

Policymakers may agree to an extent, with all sides increasingly focusing on leverage points that aren't coming until the end of the month.

As it stands, the shutdown is already among the longest in history.

If things continue apace well into November, the stoppage will become the longest one in US history. That deadline is looming on Nov. 4, when the current stoppage could potentially surpass a 34-day shutdown that began in 2018.

One of the Trump administration's key tools to put immediate pressure on Democrats was at least temporarily removed Wednesday, when a ruling from the US District Court for the Northern District of California put at least a temporary pause on Trump's plans to use the shutdown to permanently fire federal employees.

It was the latest action that at least delays the sharpest political and economic shutdown pain. On another front, Trump's administration has reallocated funds to pay active-duty soldiers and has also overseen a $300 million infusion into a food aid program for low-income mothers.

House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday lauded the move to pay military members, but he was quick to warn that the same may not be true at the end of the month, when the next round of military paychecks is scheduled to go out.

This reallocation "is a temporary fix," Johnson told reporters, adding that efforts to pay both military members and law enforcement officers on time can only extend for so long and aren't likely to be repeatable at the end of the month, so "none of those people will be paid if the Democrat obstruction continues."

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is also talking up November, but in the context of healthcare open enrollment, when Americans currently enrolled in Affordable Care Act subsidized plans may need to opt in, even with premiums potentially shooting up without action.

"Every day now, people are getting notices," Schumer said Wednesday on the Senate floor, "and we're getting close to November 1st when people are going to have to decide: Do they give up health insurance altogether and watch their people, their children, their spouses suffer?"

For now, there are warnings of economic costs that are mounting by the day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, "We are starting to cut into muscle here," and "We believe that the shutdown may start costing the US economy up to $15 billion a day."

Analysts see varied ways the shutdown stretches to November

The multiple weeks of government shutdown — with no movement toward talks, much less any signs of compromise — have prompted analysts to increase their projections of how long this could last.

"Our US Government shutdown base case has changed," Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy wrote in one example this week, saying that markets should settle in for another three weeks of shutdown "until at least November 4."

He suggests this will be a small market negative, as politics — specifically citing the likely election of Zohran Mamdani as the next mayor of New York City on that date in November — is an item on the political calendar that will overlap with any eventual shutdown timeline.

Veda Partners' Treyz offered a similar timeline but for different reasons, telling clients she likewise views early November as when the mounting costs of a shutdown could force a compromise.

Her projection is that the need for relief for farmers will force Republicans to the table to work with Democrats on their healthcare demands.

"The ultimate solution, in our view, will be a combined farmers bailout and ACA subsidies extension, which we believe could get the necessary 218 votes in the House and 60+ in the Senate," Treyz wrote.

Signum Global Advisors is also focused on November, but the firm currently projects "an end before November 1 most likely." The reasoning is that those end-of-the-month deadlines around healthcare and military paychecks will provide a forcing mechanism that both sides will want to be ahead of.

Some focus on Thanksgiving

Perhaps the most disruptive scenario is a shutdown that extends well into November, affecting the busy Thanksgiving travel season.

Scattered travel disruptions have already been seen, as both air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers are currently being asked to work without pay.

Republican leaders have begun to issue warnings that those effects could grow as they continue to pressure Democrats.

"Airports will be flooded with flight cancellations and delays amid the busiest time to travel all year," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer warned on Tuesday.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

This article was first published on Yahoo Finance