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By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- Oil steadied after US sanctions on major Russian producers pushed prices up more than 5% Thursday and raised the prospect of supply disruptions.
Brent traded near $66 a barrel on Friday, on course for a weekly rise of more than 7%, with similar gains for West Texas Intermediate. Russian oil flows to major Indian refiners are expected to plunge following the US restrictions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, while Chinese state-owned companies canceled some purchases.
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The European Union, meanwhile, has piled additional pressure on the Kremlin with a package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, including a full transaction ban on Rosneft and Gazprom Neft PJSC.
The US measures come as the oil market faces a significant surplus, with the amount on tankers at sea hitting a record and the International Energy Agency expecting world supply to exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year. Kuwait’s oil minister also said OPEC is prepared to increase production if demand requires it.
“There will be an element of scepticism over how effective these sanctions will be,” ING Groep NV said in a report. “Clearly, one would expect much more of a move if the belief was that a meaningful amount of Russian supply would be lost.”
See also: Understanding the Latest US Sanctions on Russian Oil: QuickTake
Chinese firms have halted purchases of some spot cargoes — mostly ESPO, a grade from Russia’s Far East — according to people with knowledge of the situation. President Donald Trump plans to speak to his counterpart Xi Jinping about the China-Russia oil trade during a meeting next week.
Meanwhile, India’s Reliance Industries Ltd., a major Russian oil importer, has bought millions of barrels of crude from the Middle East and US. The processor does typically purchase Middle Eastern grades, but the recent buying — including some transactions prior to the US sanctions — has been more active than usual, traders said.
Russia anticipates a hit to its budget, but the country — which has plenty of experience skirting sanctions — will deploy its network of traders and shadow tankers to limit the financial impact, according to an official close to the Kremlin. Rosneft, headed by President Vladimir Putin’s close ally, Igor Sechin, and Lukoil are the country’s two largest producers.
Russia also faces regular Ukrainian attacks on its refineries, crude pipelines and export terminals. On Thursday, Kyiv claimed a strike on a Rosneft plant.
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