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Dip Buyers Boost Wall Street Strategists Eyeing Year-End Rally.

stock :: 2025-11-17 :: source - bloomberg

By Alexandra Semenova

As traders rolled into the office Friday, they were greeted with a choice. Lock in profits as futures on the S&P 500 Index were pointing to another brutal day of selling, or heed the advice of Wall Street strategists and buy the dip.

They chose the latter, making calls from trading desks at Barclays Plc and UBS Group AG and the research team at Wells Fargo Securities LLC look prescient. US stocks reversed a drop of more than 1.4% to end the day little changed. The Friday rebound calmed nerves across Wall Street that had become frayed by signs the AI trade was faltering and the Federal Reserve was no longer a lock to cut interest rates.

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It wasn’t just a one-day call, either. The Wall Street prognosticators say any pullbacks between now and the end of the year provide opportunities to add to positions. Their optimism is based on seasonal patters that show year-end rallies are far more common than not. Underpinning the call is faith in Corporate America after a strong earnings season that brought profit growth of nearly 15% and forecasts for further expansion. The economy, while cooling, remains relatively strong.

“I would still be positioning for a bounce between now and year end,” Alexander Altmann, global head of equities tactical strategies at Barclays, said in a note to clients.


There are headwinds, though. Big Tech has started borrowing billions to finance the massive spending needed to build out artificial intelligence applications. A soft labor market might not be enough for Fed officials to lower rates as they worry that President Donald Trump’s trade policies will stoke inflation. Valuations remain stretched, and positioning shows investors getting defensive after a torrid six-month run.

Technical factors helped the Friday recovery. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Index both slipped below their average price for the past 50 days, triggering a bout of buying. The broader index also dropped under 6,700, a round number that often attracts automatic orders. Those support levels should stay in place, strategists say.

Altmann said the relative strength at the index level overshadowed some brutal selling underneath the hood that indicated a near-term bottom was near. Retail favorites and meme stocks had dropped 30% over the past month, he said, while the firm’s artificial intelligence baskets shed 10% since late October — the largest selloff across those pockets of risk assets since April.

From a sentiment perspective, Altmann pointed out that the bank’s Equity Euphoria Indicator (EEI) had dropped to the lowest level since mid-August, providing a tailwind to the trading desk’s market-timing indicator.

This illustrates that “excess froth is firmly out of the picture for the time being,” Altmann said. The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,734, up 0.08% across a volatile five days.

Aaron Nordvik, head of macro equity strategy for UBS’s trading floor, said he sees the S&P 500 breaching the 7,000 milestone before year-end and advised clients to buy any pullback. His target implies a gain of roughly 4%.

“I’m positioning for a year-end rally,” Nordvik said. Specifically, it’s a good-time to buy up some of the high-quality technology companies that got caught up in the momentum selloff — which by Friday afternoon were bouncing back. “AI is leading the path higher. Secular trends remain in place, and nothing has changed.”

He added that although the narrative around artificial intelligence technology had come into question across recent weeks, the earnings picture from the latest reporting cycle suggest the trade remains intact.

From a seasonal standpoint, “buy in November” returns — the subsequent six month period through April — are strong when the “sell in May” period — May to October — defies its bearish reputation like it did this year, according to Nordvik. The S&P 500 was up another 7.3% on average in the last two months of the year when gains from May to October exceeded 10%, going back to 1950. The S&P 500 climbed 17% in that period this year.

“The question is if the typically bearish part is bullish, is the typically bullish seasonal bearish? The answer is no,” Nordvik said. “In other words, if it’s a bull market, it just keeps running.”

Back over at Barclays, Altmann said despite the beat down among retail favorites, individual investors still have a propensity to buy dips based on his metrics. That cohort accounts for a bit over one-fifth of the market, sizable enough to force more reluctant participants to chase short-term pops.

At Wells Fargo, chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon told clients that bearish sentiment set off a counter buying signal, falling to levels that have preceded an average three-month gain for the S&P 500 of 7.5%, with positive performance over the period 90% of the time.

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