By Bloomberg News

(Bloomberg) -- Oil extended its biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders weighed the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal that could deflate political risk from an already well-supplied market.

Brent slipped toward $62 a barrel. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said weekend talks in Geneva had been productive, and a top aide of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the discussions demonstrated significant progress. European officials also expressed optimism.

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The latest push toward peace is spurring a rush for cover against price drops. The volume of bearish options traded on Friday was the biggest in almost four weeks, and traders are demanding bigger premiums for those contracts.

Crude has slumped this year, with futures on course for a fourth monthly loss in November, in what would be the longest losing run since 2023. The decline has been driven by expanded global output, including from OPEC+, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record surplus for 2026. Traders are monitoring whether a deal on Ukraine will materialize, and if sanctions on Russia will be lifted — developments that could inject more supply.

“We should expect a nervous oil market ahead of Thanksgiving on Thursday,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “Several factors point to a peace agreement or possibly a ceasefire moving closer over the weekend, which supports further price declines this week.”

Still, negotiations may be extended beyond the Nov. 27 deadline initially set by US President Donald Trump, Rubio said.

Obstacles to a deal remain, including concern among European leaders that the initial proposed framework was too generous toward Moscow. Together with other allies, they told the US in a statement released at the G20 summit in South Africa that the plan for Ukraine needed “additional work.”

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