Investors placed the odds of a cut at the Dec. 9-10 policy meeting at about 70% on Monday after Waller advocated for easing next month. Still he said that a flood of delayed economic data to be released after the December gathering could make the January decision “a little trickier.”

On the AI front, meanwhile, lofty valuations, circular financing deals, and sky-high expectations for growth have stoked skittishness around a potential bubble. The worries were highlighted last week when robust earnings from AI darling Nvidia Corp. spurred big swings across equities rather than placating those concerns.

Positioning data is also flashing mixed signals about what traders can expect in the remainder of 2025. A Deutsche Bank AG measure of equity exposure turned underweight last week for the first time since July, data compiled by the bank’s strategists including Parag Thatte show. But for mega-cap growth and technology shares, outperformance relative to the average stock is still at the top of its long-run trend channel despite the pullback, “leaving them vulnerable,” according to Thatte.

For optimists, history skews in their favor against all of the nerves. Whenever the S&P 500 rose at least 10% from early January through September but declined in November — like currently — December followed with gains each and every time going back to 1950, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.

“We remain tactically bullish,” JPMorgan’s head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler told clients in a Nov. 24 note, citing resilient macroeconomic data, positive earnings growth, and a thawing trade war. “Additionally, historical seasonality stats also suggested a rebound.”

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