By Bloomberg News

(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell as investors tracked US-led efforts to end the war in Ukraine, while looking ahead to an OPEC+ gathering this weekend.

Brent dropped below $63 a barrel after rising 1% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $58. With US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff set to lead a delegation for talks in Russia next week, traders are weighing whether a deal can be struck and the implications for crude flows.

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OPEC and its allies, meanwhile, are set to meet Nov. 30. Eight of the group’s members decided earlier this month to pause further output increases in the first quarter of next year, after ramping up supplies at speed over 2025.

Crude is on track to register a fourth monthly drop in November, the longest losing run since 2023. Prices have been tugged lower by prospects for a surplus, as supplies run ahead of demand, and more recently, the diplomacy over Ukraine. Still, almost 20 oil traders and investors interviewed by Bloomberg said they either weren’t expecting a peace deal at all, or if one did materialize, it would take time to boost flows of Russian barrels.

“A Ukraine-Russia peace deal only matters if it shows up in real barrels,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP. “The market needs pipes, ships, and contracts, a handshake deal just won’t cut it.”

Trading on Thursday may be muted with the Thanksgiving break in the US.

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