By Sneha Kumar
(Reuters)
- Analysts ramped up long bets on most Asian currencies on stronger
growth prospects and weakness in the greenback, a Reuters poll showed on
Thursday, while short positions on the Indian rupee surged to a
10-month high.
They
turned bullish on the Singapore dollar , upped their long positions on
the Thai baht , and pushed long bets on the Malaysian ringgit to their
highest levels since mid-June, according to a fortnightly poll of 11
respondents.
The ringgit has risen 8.8% so far this year, on track to notch its strongest performance since 2017.
The Malaysian central bank's tight monetary stance, capped by just a modest quarter-point move in 2025, alongside brighter growth prospects have lifted the currency.
The
ringgit is likely to find support from fiscal reforms, strong
domestic-led investment outlook, and narrowing yield differentials with
the U.S., said Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst with MUFG.
Meanwhile,
recent weakness in the dollar index on bets of further policy easing
has also helped regional currencies. All poll responses were collected
before the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25-basis-points on Wednesday.
Long positions on the Chinese yuan also rose to their highest since late January 2023.
The currency rose for a fourth straight month in November - its longest string of monthly gains in four years.
A record export surplus in the first 11 months of the year has buoyed the yuan. At the same time, Beijing is planning to expand domestic demand and shore up the broader economy in 2026 with a more proactive policy push.
Short bets on Indonesian rupiah , South Korean won and Taiwan dollar have decreased.
Indonesia's domestic economy has proven resilient, powered by robust fiscal stimulus and a brighter growth outlook. In contrast, the sharp weakness in the won has forced government authorities to issue a stern warning to markets.
The
Indian rupee , on the other hand, had short bets surging to their
highest levels in ten months. The currency is set to mark its eighth
straight year of depreciation with a more than 5% loss.
Analysts
at Barclays see limited potential for USDINR to move lower, noting that
the Reserve Bank of India does not appear to be particularly concerned
about the fall, given the inflation gap between India and advanced
economies.
They expect the unit to reach 94 per dollar by end of 2026.
"As
long as the currency continues on its 'crawl', moving roughly along the
path that forwards imply, it should not prompt major resistance from
the RBI."
Meanwhile, the Philippine central bank's aggressive rate‑cutting cycle
has fuelled a clear tilt toward bearish bets on the peso . The Bangko
Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to cut rates for the fifth consecutive
meeting later in the day.
The
Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund
managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging
market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore
dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso,
Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The
poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3
to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long
U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE | USD/CNY | USD/KRW | USD/SGD | USD/IDR | USD/TWD | USD/INR | USD/MYR | USD/PHP | USD/THB |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Reporting by Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman
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