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Amazon Investors Bet on AWS to Pull the Stock Out of Its Malaise.

stock :: 3hrs ago :: source - bloomberg

By Ryan Vlastelica and Carmen Reinicke

(Bloomberg) — Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) bulls are betting that the company’s stock is primed to reestablish its market leadership after years of trailing its Big Tech rivals.

The optimism starts with demand for the Amazon Web Services cloud-computing business, which is positioned to benefit from the explosion of artificial intelligence technology. In addition, AI is seen helping the company’s better-known e-commerce unit, which should get more refined advertising targeting and improved efficiency across its vast logistics operation.

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“An improvement in AWS should help materially in terms of the perception of the stock as being the relative loser in cloud,” said Pat Burton, a portfolio manager at Winslow Capital Management, who counts Amazon as one of his biggest overweights among the Magnificent Seven tech giants.

Amazon shares were the worst performers among the Mag Seven in 2025, their seventh straight year trailing the group. The stock’s 5% gain for the year also fell way short of the 20% pop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index (^NDX). Things have reversed in the early days of 2026, with the shares up slightly even after Tuesday’s 3.4% decline, trailing just Alphabet Inc. as the rest of the Magnificent Seven sells off to start the year.


The stock’s underperformance during the past few years has left it relatively inexpensive, at least historically speaking. Amazon is trading for around 24 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, which is less than Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Alphabet and significantly below its five-year average of 36.

Wall Street pros point to Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) stunning 2025 rebound as a model for what can happen to Amazon. Google’s parent was seen as a loser in the AI race for years, and its stock market performance trailed Amazon and the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index in 2023 and 2024. At this time last year, its shares were the cheapest among the group of tech giants.

Then Alphabet released a new version of its Gemini AI model on March 25 and the stock took off as word circulated about its capabilities. The shares have soared 89% since then, by far the best performance in the Mag Seven and putting them among the top 25 gainers in the S&P 500 Index over that time.

‘Looks Like Google’

Now, investors see Amazon as the next Big Tech stock to capture that burst of AI enthusiasm.

“It looks like Google (GOOG) did 18 months ago,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments. “Things can change very quickly in this sector of the business.”

Sentiment is already trending that way. AWS posted its fastest growth in years in the company’s most recent results, released in October. That was followed by a $38 billion deal to provide computing power to OpenAI. And last month, it was reported that OpenAI is in talks to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon and use its homegrown Trainium chips. A December conference was seen as underlining confidence surrounding the company’s cloud and fledgling semiconductor businesses.

“For most of 2025, Amazon fought against a narrative that AWS had fallen behind,” Brian White, an analyst at Monness Crespi Hardt & Co., wrote in a Dec. 22 note. “However, Amazon flipped this narrative on its head” with its results and the OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) news. He has a buy rating on the stock, as do 95% of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The prospect of improved efficiency has analysts anticipating stronger profitability. Amazon’s earnings per share are seen growing nearly 12% in 2026 and 22% in 2027, even as revenue is expected to rise around 11% each year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Operating income is seen growing 26% in the current year and roughly 24% next year.

Analysts are also becoming increasingly bullish in their expectations for profits. Consensus estimates for the company’s net 2026 earnings have risen by 8.2% over the past six months, while the view for revenue is up 4.2% over the same period.

“It’s the AI name that hasn’t gotten the love,” said Clayton Allison, portfolio manager at Prime Capital Financial, which owns Amazon shares. “It has built out the AI infrastructure everyone wants to use, it’s the e-commerce giant, and it is trading at a discount.”

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Earnings Due Wednesday

  • No major earnings expected

—With assistance from Subrat Patnaik and David Watkins.

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