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World Races to Protect Oil Flows After Iran War Hits Exports.

general :: 9hrs ago :: source - bloomberg

By Arsalan Shahla, Nayla Razzouk and Galit Altstein

The International Energy Agency is considering a release of emergency oil reserves that would be the largest-ever in its history, with a decision possible later on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the matter. The proposal is in the range of about 300 million to 400 million barrels, the person said, dwarfing the 182 million barrels member countries released in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.

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The deliberations come as the UK Navy said three vessels were hit with suspected projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, underlining the ongoing threat to shipping from the conflict. The strait has been all but impassable since the early days of the war, triggering energy shortages and raising fears of an inflation crisis.

Brent soared to almost $120 a barrel at the start of the week, though has since pared gains to around $90. It remains around 45% higher year-to-date.


On Tuesday, energy markets whipsawed amid rapidly shifting comments from US President Donald Trump‘s administration over the direction of the war. Oil prices plummeted after Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted — and then deleted — a message that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump posted a flurry of messages on social media. He first insisted the US had “no reports” of mines being placed in the strait, before urging Iranian forces to remove any explosives they may have laid. The president then said the US had “hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats” and promised “more to follow.”

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have all cut production because of Hormuz’s de facto closure. Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser warned the impact on global petroleum markets could be “catastrophic.”

The conflict showed little sign of abating overnight, with Iran staging more strikes against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and the US and Israel continuing to hit targets in the Islamic Republic.

WATCH: The US-Israeli attacks on Iran have triggered a regional crisis and sent energy prices skyward. In the US, President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war also could hurt his party in an election year.Source: Bloomberg

While the US and Israel remain publicly united and their militaries are working in tandem, officials have also acknowledged that a prolonged campaign threatens to drive a wedge between them. Trump — perhaps mindful of the energy markets crisis and the ramifications for the US economy — has signaled he may be ready to end hostilities soon, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that he isn’t done yet.

“We will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated,” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a news conference. “We do so on our timeline and at our choosing.”

Group of Seven leaders will convene Wednesday to discuss the crisis in Iran and its ramifications for the world economy, with traders now widely expecting central banks to have to slow their pace of interest-rate cuts.

WATCH: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the US is unleashing the “most intense” day of strikes on Iran.Source: Bloomberg

The UAE’s biggest oil refinery at Ruwais halted operations after a drone strike caused a fire in the industrial area in which it’s located, according to people familiar with the matter.

The US-Israeli airstrikes have degraded Iran’s military capability, with the number of missiles and drones it has fired at Gulf states and Israel having diminished over the course of the war, now its its 12th day. US officials say more than 90% of Tehran’s launchers have been destroyed.

But dislodging the conservative clerics and the well armed and funded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that rule the country will be a formidable task. The Guards — which are separate from the regular military — has around 200,000 active troops and another 600,000 volunteers, including the Basij paramilitary militia, US assessments show.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran is prepared to scale back the conflict “on the condition that the airspace, territory, and waters” of neighboring countries aren’t used to launch attacks on the Islamic Republic, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency.

The likes of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have consistently said they’re not allowing the US or Israel to use their territories or airspace for strikes on Iran.

More than 1,300 Iranians have been killed in the war so far, according to an official toll, although that number hasn’t been updated for several days.

Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran’s supreme leader after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the initial wave of strikes. Iranian state television has reported that the younger Khamenei had been injured, but the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency cited Yousef Pezeshkian, a son and adviser of Iran’s president, as saying he’d been told he was in good health.

At least seven US service members have died, most of them in the first two days of fighting. The White House confirmed Tuesday that around 150 personnel had been injured so far. There have been several deaths in Gulf countries and Israel.

Israeli forces maintained attacks on southern Lebanon, aiming to degrade Iran-aligned Hezbollah. Some 570 people have been killed in Lebanon and 1,444 injured, according to the nation’s health ministry. Two Israeli soldiers were killed in the Lebanese operations.

Trump pledged during his election campaign not to allow the US to become involved in protracted foreign wars, and there’s a risk that more American casualties and sustained high gasoline prices will weigh on Republicans’ chances in November midterm elections.

--With assistance from Patrick Sykes and Kateryna Kadabashy.

(Updates with IEA plans in second paragraph, UK navy vessels hits in third.)

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