Bitcoin Weakens as Oil Surges Back Above $100 on Iran War

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Bitcoin Weakens as Oil Surges Back Above $100 on Iran War.

crypto :: 14hrs ago :: source - bloomberg

By Suvashree Ghosh

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin weakened on Thursday as oil briefly jumped back above $100 a barrel on deepening concerns about the Iran conflict.

The original cryptocurrency fell as much as 2% after attacks on two oil tankers in Iraqi waters and hovered around $70,000 in early morning in New York. Brent crude soared as much as 10.5%, prompting risk-off sentiment across markets, including equities.

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Bitcoin has been relatively stable compared with other assets since the US and Israel initiated a bombing campaign against Iran on Feb. 28. The digital asset was one of the first to fall that weekend, while other markets were closed, but it rebounded quickly. In recent days, it jumped back above $73,000 as investors sought safety in liquid assets.

“We would expect some profit-taking at the $70,000 level,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets. “The macro backdrop remains unsettled, with oil volatility and lingering geopolitical uncertainty keeping risk sentiment cautious in the short term.”

Markets have whipsawed on mixed messaging over the Middle East conflict. US President Donald Trump suggested this week that the war could end soon, but the timeline remains unclear. Iran, meanwhile, has continued to strike targets in the region and disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade artery.

Fears about the impact of higher energy prices have sent traders flocking to the dollar. Bitcoin has also served as a hedge, as traders looked for assets with enough liquidity to move quickly in and out depending on market conditions.

Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at Amina Bank, said in a note Wednesday that conditions signaled Bitcoin could continue to see upside momentum in the near term. He pointed to negative funding rates — payments made on perpetual futures contracts that do not expire — which for Bitcoin hit their lowest level in nearly five weeks on Thursday. Holders of large amounts of Bitcoin, known as whales, were also buying as prices dipped, he added.

“Negative average monthly funding rates have happened only 10 times since 2018, and has historically preceded strong forward returns over longer horizons,” Cobeljic said. “Whale accumulation has been observed consistently in the low $60,000 range. In combination, the near-term setup for a relief rally is more constructive than the headline environment would suggest.”

(Updates prices in second paragraph.)