By Myles Udland

Stock market history has a few lessons for investors.

One of the most potent is that stocks usually go up. Another is that stocks usually have pullbacks greater than 10% every year. (The average drawdown in the last 40 years is 14.2% intrayear, according to JPMorgan.)

And in the relatively rare instances where stocks have seen declines greater than 10% in a calendar year, one of three reasons has been the trigger.

The problem for investors right now is that all three are in play.

In a note published Tuesday morning, DataTrek Research co-founder Nick Colas flagged that since 1928, there have only been a dozen years in which the S&P 500 fell more than 10% in a calendar year.

“Eight were due to recessions that deflated lofty valuations,” Colas wrote. “Widespread military conflict was the proximate cause of three. Unexpected hawkish Fed policy explains the last one.”

Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down 4% for the year, with Colas noting, “There is still time to avoid a double-digit loss in 2026, but the clock is ticking.”

Now, for those keeping score at home, the years in which the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from Jan. 1 through Dec. 31 were 1930, ‘31, ‘37, ‘41, ‘57, ‘66, ‘73, ‘74, 2001, ‘02, ‘08, and ‘22.

It’s also worth noting that there have been recessions — such as the downturn in 1991, the recession of 1981-82, and the COVID-induced recession in 2020 — that didn’t send stocks down 10% in a calendar year.

It’s also March 25. This time last year, we hadn’t had "Liberation Day" yet, private credit fears were few and far between, and software stocks hadn’t become the AI trade’s punching bag.

Moreover, almost no economist on Wall Street right now is talking about a recession. Even Nouriel Roubini, who has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom," told us he's "not anticipating a recession right now."

Oil prices are elevated, but some economists think current prices just about reflect the current supply disruption from the war in the Middle East. And the Federal Reserve seems unlikely to raise interest rates this year, even as rate cut hopes were soundly dashed by Jay Powell last week.

While Colas isn’t making anything like a call that the stock market will end this year down 10%, his note is one that stood out because as the mood shifts on Wall Street, knowing what has and hasn’t ultimately driven sustained periods of poor performance needs to be top of mind.

Even if that knowledge is just for safekeeping.

Myles Udland is Yahoo Finance's Head of News.