Oil markets have been extremely turbulent since the war began and prices remain more than 30% above pre-conflict levels. With a fragile ceasefire emerging this week, attention is turning to how sustainable it will be and whether a lasting peace can emerge that will restart flows through the Strait of Hormuz. US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a US delegation in discussions with Iranian officials in Islamabad on Saturday.

“The weekend meeting is flip-a-coin time, although I think the chance of a deal or something that looks like a deal is the most likely outcome,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. “The futures market is sending a signal of resilience given we are six weeks into the closure and prices still trading below $100,” he added, referring to the waterway’s near-halt.

Countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supplies, including Japan, have begun tapping inventories. The Asian nation will release about 20 days of oil from its stockpiles in May, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said. In China, state refiners were given the green light to tap into commercial reserves, while India’s largest private refiner has started to cap fuel purchases at pumps to manage stocks.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was “very optimistic” about a deal with Iran and Israel was “going to low-key” it with strikes on Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his position that the ongoing attacks weren’t part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Trump later threatened Tehran over charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz.

“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait,” Trump wrote Thursday on social media. “They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

The Strait of Hormuz’s near-closure since end-February has disrupted a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, triggering a severe supply shock.

Trump described Iran’s leaders as “much more reasonable” than their public comments would suggest in a phone interview with NBC News. However, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a statement on Telegram that Iran “will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” though it was unclear if he was referring to past Iranian demands to retain control of the waterway that the US has rejected.