The US is pressing on with its blockade of Hormuz to curb the Islamic Republic’s oil exports. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, hailed the action, saying: “US forces have completely halted trade going into and out of Iran by sea.” In a later social-media post, Trump proclaimed a “chokehold,” saying that Iran could run out of storage.

For its part, Tehran is considering a pause to shipments through the waterway to avoid testing the US cordon, according to a person familiar with the matter. Since the war began, Iran has prevented the passage of almost all shipping through the key route, which links the Persian Gulf to wider markets.

The global oil market has been jolted by the conflict, which triggered an unprecedented supply shock. Surging prices for physical crude and products such as gasoline are squeezing consumers and hurting demand, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a drop in consumption this year.

“In the near term, oil is likely to move sideways with a softer bias, as the market digests the shift toward diplomacy,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist covering cross-asset markets at Pepperstone Group.

“However, even if geopolitical tensions ease at the margin, any meaningful recovery in physical supply will lag,” with logistical bottlenecks off Hormuz keeping a floor under prices, Wu added.

After an initial round of peace talks in Islamabad last weekend ended with no deal, the objective is to hold more US-Iran negotiations before a ceasefire expires next week, people familiar with the matter said. One proposal is a return to Pakistan, though other venues are being considered.

Should escalation risks fade, supply from the Middle East may see a “tiered recovery,” according to ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. Some 2 million to 3 million barrels a day were likely to be restored in the first four weeks, followed by additional volumes, analysts including Daniel Hynes said in a note.

Oil importers in Asia are feeling a deeper crunch, with Japan set to launch a second release from national stockpiles from early May, according to the Ministry of Economy. Refiners in the region, meanwhile, could be forced to reduce operations further, throttling supplies of jet fuel and diesel.