By Brooke DiPalma

McDonald's (MCD) is expected to report first quarter earnings before the market opens on Thursday, following strong 7% same-store sales growth in the previous quarter.

Wall Street expects McDonald’s US same-store sales to grow for the fourth straight quarter, with a 3.9% increase in Q1, per Bloomberg consensus data. However, poor weather, lapping the successful Minecraft Movie Meal promotion, higher beef costs, and the impact of the US-Iran conflict on consumer behavior may drag on the quarter.

Heading into the print, the stock is down 7% year to date, compared with the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) 7% gain.

Value has been the name of the game for the fast food giant. In early April, McDonald’s launched a new under $3 menu and a $4 breakfast meal deal, in addition to its ongoing $5 to $6 meal deals.

The new $3 menu replaced McDonald’s buy-one, get-one promotion. In a note to clients, BTIG analyst Peter Saleh wrote that franchisees believe specific price points “resonate better than buy-one, get-one offers,” but adoption may take a bit.

While the US is expected to drive growth yet again, its international markets are expected to see momentum with estimates of 4% growth.

Wall Street is also on the lookout for two other potential catalysts in the quarter: McDonald’s new Big Arch burger and new beverages.

You might have seen the viral video of McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski trying the new Big Arch burger, which launched in March. While Kempczinski’s taste test prompted some mocking from fast food peers, it also likely got more consumers to head to the fast food joint.

“Results from the Big Arch burger (March) were pretty good,” Saleh wrote. “Sales did jump after Chris Kempczinski's tasting video went viral (say what you will about his small bite and corporate-speak, he sold burgers), but have since waned and will roll off the menu soon.”

McDonald’s and its rivals are also watching how new beverage sales perform. In late April, the burger giant announced six specialty drinks, including refreshers and “dirty sodas,” or customizable sodas mixed with creamer and flavored syrups. Saleh believes the new drinks could drive a mid-single-digit sales lift.

“Franchisees are overwhelmingly positive on the platform,” Saleh wrote. “We believe our estimate is still in play, despite push back from some investors suggesting we were too high. Our conversations suggest that the beverage platform will at the very least drive incremental check, and could meaningfully increase food attachment.”

The logo of the fast food restaurant McDonald's is displayed outside a branch of the restaurant, on April 29, 2026, in Wellington, England. (Anna Barclay/Getty Images)

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Brooke DiPalma is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.