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Tesla Q2 delivery preview: Europe, international sales the driver as US sales in decline.

watchlist :: 6hrs ago :: source - yahoo finance

By Pras Subramanian

Tesla (TSLA) will report second quarter delivery numbers as early as Wednesday as the EV maker seeks another quarter of recovering sales.

Tesla is expected to report 397,000 deliveries, per Bloomberg consensus, though this figure will fluctuate as more analyst projections come in. The projection implies 11% growth from the first quarter, but up only 3% from the 384,000 Teslas delivered a year ago. Tesla sales were hit a year ago following the changeover to the new Model Y and backlash over CEO Elon Musk's political positions.

Tesla's own company-compiled consensus of sell-side analysts, posted to its investor relations site on June 26, sees total deliveries of 406,024 for the quarter, with the median estimate closer to 408,600.

The report comes amid a mixed geographic sales picture for the company. In the US, the expiration of federal EV tax credits has hit demand, removing the incentive that made the math work for a lot of buyers. Cox Automotive sees Tesla's US sales down 20% due to the loss of federal incentives. 

Interestingly, Europe is moving in the opposite direction. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, Tesla registrations (a proxy for sales) hit 28,610 cars across greater Europe, up nearly 108% from a year earlier. Year to date through May, the company has registered 118,068 vehicles in those markets, a 57% jump. Within the EU alone, May registrations more than doubled, up 152%.

Read more: Buying an electric car? What to know about EV insurance costs.

"International strength is doing the heavy lifting with Europe acting as the standout driver and China providing further support," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu wrote earlier on Tuesday. "By region, we expect the largest YoY growth to come from Europe at nearly 40%, followed by China at +3%, and finally N. America at -21% (albeit +7% QoQ)."

Yu added that Deutsche sees North American sales sliding 21% year over year but up 7% sequentially from Q1.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks alongside President Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images). Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images

That rebound comes despite Elon Musk's controversial political leanings. In much of Europe, Musk remains a liability, with his politics treated as toxic across wide stretches of the buying public. 

But Tesla's pricing is strong enough that buyers are holding their noses and buying anyway, meaning a good deal trumps bad politics for most buyers.

The larger EV picture across the pond is good for Tesla and other automakers. Battery-electric cars captured 20% of the EU market through May, up from 15.3% a year earlier, as gas and diesel car sales kept sliding. 

The stock tells a different story. Tesla continued to gain on Tuesday after rising over 8% on Monday in its biggest day in a year. But it's essentially flat for the quarter and down over 8% for the year. Tesla and other "Magnificent Sevent" stocks have been slammed in 2026. 

Another figure to watch is Tesla's energy and battery deployments. Tesla's own consensus estimate is 13.8 GWh, up over 50% compared to Q1's 8.8 GWh.

Pras Subramanian is the lead auto reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.

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