By Peter Stoneham

(Reuters) - The euro has been locked in a losing battle with the British pound, repeatedly failing to clear a key technical hurdle — and the chart suggests the struggle may not ​be over yet.

Click here for a more detailed chart.

Since hitting a peak of 0.8729 ‌on May 15, the euro has repeatedly tried — and failed — to push through an important price level known as the 100-day moving average, currently sitting at 0.8671, according to data supplied by LSEG.

Think of this average as a ​kind of referee's line drawn across the middle of the field. It represents the average ​price of the euro against the pound over the last 100 trading days, ⁠and it helps reveal the broader trend beneath the day-to-day noise.

Each time the euro has approached ​that line from below and briefly crossed it — only to fall back — it sends a clear signal: ​sellers are in control.

These failed attempts, sometimes called false breaks, are a bit like a runner repeatedly stumbling just before the finish line. There was a brief moment of hope on June 18, when the euro managed to ​close above the average, but it could not hold that ground.

Why is the euro struggling? Largely ​because investors currently find the pound slightly more attractive. UK inflation has proven stubborn, meaning the Bank of England ‌may keep ⁠interest rates higher for longer — and higher rates tend to draw investors in, boosting a currency. The euro, meanwhile, faces headwinds from slower euro zone growth, energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.

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Where could this go? If the euro stays below the 100-day moving average, it could slide back toward the June ​2025 low of 0.8408. ​A convincing break above ⁠it, however, could open the door to a recovery toward the May highs near 0.8729.

What the chart shows:

(Daily ​markets commentary from Reuters analysts on the signals financial charts are sending - and what they might mean.)

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