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Intel Needs More Than Blowout Earnings as Chips Rally Falters.

watchlist :: 4hrs ago :: source - bloomberg

By Carmen Reinicke

(Bloomberg) -- Intel Corp. is expected to report strong second-quarter earnings after the market close Thursday, but even blowout results likely won't be enough to reverse the stock's July slide.

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The shares are down 27% this month, putting them among the 10 worst performers in the S&P 500 Index, after soaring 278% in the first half for the third-best performance in the broad equities benchmark. The move comes as investors are suddenly selling this year's winners and souring on chipmakers in particular.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, or SOX, has lost 13% this month and briefly sank into a bear market last week before recovering somewhat.

"How investors feel about the semiconductor space is going to call what Intel does here more than what Intel tells you," said Matt Bryson of Wedbush Securities. "The stock move has been more of a sentiment shift necessarily than being supported by kind of real shifts in earnings power."

Wall Street expects Intel to post a 12% increase in second-quarter revenue to $14.4 billion and earnings of 12 cents per share, reversing a loss of 67 cents a year ago. Gross margins are projected to be about 39%, up from nearly 30% in the same quarter last year.

"It's not that Intel hasn't gotten better," Bryson said. "Just it hasn't gotten better at the same rate that the stock has gotten better."

Intel shares have gained 178% in 2026, putting them on pace for their best year ever in data going back to 1983. That's the second-strongest showing in the SOX, which has risen 75% this year and is heading for its best annual performance since 2003. The stock took off in early April and kept running, eventually eclipsing its dot-com era high, as the company joined Elon Musk's Terafab project, issued a blockbuster forecast and President Donald Trump touted a deal with Apple Inc. to design and produce chips in the US.

But enthusiasm for semiconductors is starting to fizzle as investors grow concerned about how long the heavy spending on artificial intelligence can last. And that pessimism is now looming over Intel's results. During its earnings call on Wednesday, Alphabet Inc., one of the biggest AI spenders, raised its outlook for capital expenditures this year to between $195 billion and $205 billion from its previous expectation of $180 billion to $190 billion.

Last week's disappointing market reaction to a strong print from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the main chipmaker for Nvidia Corp., demonstrates the challenges facing Intel's stock heading into this report. TSMC increased its revenue and spending outlooks for the year, reflecting confidence in demand for chips and data centers in 2027 and beyond. And yet the company's American depositary receipts fell.

Of course, Intel's report is likely to offer encouraging signs for investors. There's strong demand from data center operators for central processing unit chips, known as CPUs, which Intel makes, to the point where there are concerns about whether supply can keep up.

Wall Street is also hoping Intel will name more clients for its foundry business, with analysts closely watching its capital expenditures for clues that it has secured new customers. In addition, positive updates on a deal with Apple or the Terafab commitment could give the shares a boost, according to Kim Forrest, founder and chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners.

"If those announcements still feel like they're going forward in the timeline originally outlined, I think the stock reacts well in the shorter term," she said.

The shares got a lift Tuesday when the company confirmed that it will cut jobs in its data center group as part of its effort to reduce costs.

But even with healthy earnings and shares well off a record high, Intel may not have much more room to rise because it's gotten too expensive. The stock is priced at about 74 times earnings over the next 12 months, an extreme premium to its 10-year average of 22. That's the third highest multiple in the semiconductor index, blowing away rivals like Nvidia, which is priced at less than 20 times forward earnings, and Broadcom Inc. at 23 times. The SOX trades at 23 times projected earnings, and the S&P 500 is at 20 times.

"This is a stock where the market is getting ahead of itself, at least on the valuation side," said Thomas George, portfolio manager at Grizzle Investment Management, which owns Intel shares. "The added hurdle for Intel is its own demanding valuation."

Tech Chart of the Day

Top Tech Stories

  • Alphabet raised its capital spending forecast to as much as $205 billion this year, reigniting concerns about a lack of fiscal discipline in the race to dominate artificial intelligence.

  • Tesla Inc.'s profit tumbled despite a strong quarter for its automotive business, pressuring Elon Musk's plan to refocus the electric vehicle maker on artificial intelligence and robots.

  • Uber Technologies Inc. said it has cut 10% of jobs within its customer service operations as part of a broader effort to simplify its ranks and "embrace artificial intelligence."

  • Micron Technology Inc. recently gave Tesla Inc. a "significant allocation" of memory chips, according to Elon Musk, helping meet the automaker's demand for an increasingly precious commodity.

  • International Business Machines Corp. cut its full-year sales outlook, including for its closely watched software unit, after reporting a dip in demand for its mainframe business.

Earnings Due

  • Earnings Postmarket:

    • VeriSign Inc. (VRSN US)

    • Appfolio Inc. (APPF US)

    • Intel (INTC US)

    • Knowles Corp. (KN US)

    • MaxLinear Inc. (MXL US)

    • RingCentral Inc. (RNG US)

    • SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc. (SSNC US)

--With assistance from Neil Campling, Subrat Patnaik and David Watkins.

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