By James Hirai

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries are heading for a second straight day of gains ahead of US economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials that may reinforce the case for further interest-rate cuts.

Yields on US 10-year debt were two basis points lower at 4.18%, close to the lowest since mid-January, while the more policy-sensitive two-year fell one basis in a so-called bull-flattening move. Money markets are assigning around a 25% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point three times this year, compared with a week ago when just two reductions were priced.

Most Read from Bloomberg

• NJ Transit Service Between Trenton and New York City Resumes

• Canadian Province New Brunswick to Quit Using Elon Musk’s X

US retail sales are forecast to have slowed to 0.4% in December from 0.6% previously, while the employment cost index is expected to have remained stable at 0.8% in the final quarter of last year, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. Both reports precede Wednesday’s closely watched January employment release, delayed from last week by a government shutdown.

On Monday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said lower US jobs numbers can be expected in the months ahead.

“The bull-flattening momentum in Treasuries is likely to stay around current levels into this week’s non-farm payrolls report,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a strategist at Mizuho International Plc.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, both regarded as monetary hawks who are also voting on interest-rate policy this year, will be speaking later Tuesday. The Treasury will sell $58 billion of new three-year notes in the first leg of this week’s sales which also include new 10- and 30-year bonds.

These releases and speakers could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Swaps imply policymakers will leave rates on hold when they meet next month as they did in January when they voted to keep them at 3.5% to 3.75%.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

• Junior Bankers Are Teaching Their Elders How to Use AI

• Why Musk’s SpaceX Mega-Merger Is a Mega-Bailout

• The New Office Oddity: Co-Workers Dictating Everything Into AI

• Cardholders Are Mad at Bilt’s CEO. They’re Still Renewing