By Matt Frankel, CFP
When it comes to AI chipmaking, Nvidia (NVDA)
is the first company most investors think of -- and for good reason.
Nvidia commands a 95% share of the data center GPU market, generates
hundreds of billions in annual revenue, and has exceptional profit
margins.
To be clear, I'm not here to say anything negative about Nvidia as an
investment. Even though it has a $4.5 trillion market cap, the chipmaker could still grow much larger, especially if it hits CEO Jensen Huang's ambitious $1 trillion in AI chip revenue by 2027.
However, I think AMD (AMD)
has an extremely bright future and could be worth far more than its
current market cap of $320 billion in the years ahead. In fact, I'm
going to make a bold prediction that Nvidia could reach a $2 trillion
valuation by 2033 -- just seven years from now. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
The trillion-dollar case for AMD
AMD just posted a fantastic 2025, including 34% revenue growth and an
all-time high for EPS. Data center revenue soared 39% year over year in
the fourth quarter, and the business is highly profitable with several
growth engines.
Here's the math. In late 2025, AMD unveiled several growth targets,
including a goal of $100 billion in annual data center revenue. CEO Lisa
Su said the market for data center chips could reach $1 trillion by
2030, a figure that is more conservative than Nvidia's market growth
estimates.
AMD projects 60% annual growth in its data center business for at
least the next three to five years, with its overall business growing at
a 35% rate-on par with its 2025 growth.
If AMD can achieve a 35% growth rate in revenue for seven years,
it would result in about $283 billion in full-year revenue for 2033.
That may sound like a huge number -- and it is -- but keep in mind that
this is roughly what Nvidia has now based on its latest
quarterly revenue guidance. The company currently trades at about 10
times trailing 12-month sales, and if this multiple were to compress to
eight times earnings, AMD stock would reach a roughly $2.3 trillion market cap in 2033.
Can AMD take some of Nvidia's market share?
Of course, with data center revenue growing by nearly 40%
year-over-year, AMD's AI chip business isn't exactly struggling. But so
far, Nvidia has maintained its massive market share.
AMD has some potentially game-changing products set to be released
later this year, including the Helios rack-scale platform for AI infrastructure
and the new Instinct MI450 chip series. On the CPU side of its
business, the company is set to launch the next-generation Venice server
CPUs. Some analysts have projected that these developments could cause
AMD's data center revenue to surge by over 70% in 2026.
It's also worth noting that AMD has a lot more going for it than data
centers. AMD's client (PC and laptop chip) and gaming revenue came in
at $14.6 billion in 2025, and its Ryzen AI processor line continues to
gain market share in PCs.
A bold prediction, but a realistic one
To be clear, I know this is a bold prediction, and as an AMD
shareholder myself, a $2 trillion market cap by 2033 isn't exactly my
base case. A lot would need to go right for it to get there.
But with AI infrastructure spending growing exponentially in recent
years, some impressive new product launches on the horizon, and a
reasonable valuation, it isn't as far-fetched as it might sound. In
fact, if AMD can execute its ambitious growth plans and gain significant
share in the data center space, a $2 trillion market cap wouldn't be
too much of a stretch at all.
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Matt Frankel, CFP
has positions in Advanced Micro Devices. The Motley Fool has positions
in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has
a disclosure policy.
This article was first published by The Motley Fool