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By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) — Oil swung at the end of a volatile month, buffeted by another tanker attack and a report that President Donald Trump is willing to end US military operations in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
West Texas Intermediate traded near $104 a barrel after jumping almost 4% earlier on Tuesday. Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in a drone attack, a sign that it’s willing to escalate strikes on energy assets. The Al-Salmi, a fully-laden very-large crude carrier, was hit in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port with the hull sustaining damage. Tehran has regularly targeted ships across the Gulf since the war began, previously attacking two vessels near Iraq.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to reopen the strait would push the war beyond his timeline of four-to-six weeks, and that the president decided the US should instead achieve its main goals of crippling Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles, and wind down current hostilities.
Trump has regularly swung between saying an end to the war is near and warning that he’s prepared to ramp up military operations. On Monday, he said that the US will blow up power plants, oil facilities and “possibly” desalination infrastructure if Iran doesn’t re-open Hormuz.
“I think we are closer to an offramp exit scenario than a lot of people actually assume,” Christoph Eibl, chief executive officer and co-founder of commodities trader Tiberius Group, said in a Bloomberg television interview. “There is a chance for a quick, go-in, make noise, blow up something” operation by the US while it tries “to find a way to exit” the conflict quickly.
The war has effectively closed Hormuz, choking off supplies of crude, natural gas and products such as diesel to global markets, which has led to skyrocketing energy prices and concerns about inflation. The conflict has extended into its fifth week and attacks by the US, Israel and Iran are ongoing, including the overnight strike on the Kuwaiti tanker.
US crude is up more than 50% this month, the most since May 2020, and the market remains on edge about the buildup of US troops in the region and a possible ground deployment in Iran. Hostilities continued on Tuesday with Israel Defense Forces completing another wave of strikes on Iranian regime targets in Tehran, while Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed drones.
Publicly, Trump administration officials are still talking tough on Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the US is “going to retake control” the waterway, ensuring safe navigation “through US escorts or a multinational escort,” reiterating an earlier plan.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington will pressure Tehran diplomatically to resume free flows through Hormuz.
Over the weekend, there was further escalation after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Israel with missiles. Tehran is pushing the militants to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, which could threaten oil supplies from alternative routes outside Hormuz, such as Saudi Arabian shipments from its Yanbu port.
“The tone remains one step forward, five steps back on any off-ramp,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “With 10 to 12 million barrels per day still effectively missing from the market, buffers are fading and talking crude lower is becoming less effective.”
—With assistance from Charles Gorrivan, Mia Gindis and John Deane.
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