How Long Does the Average Bull Market Last? Here's What History Says

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How Long Does the Average Bull Market Last? Here's What History Says.

stock :: 8hrs ago :: source - motley fool

By Katie Brockman

With tensions escalating in the Middle East, many economists are warning about the toll surging oil prices could take on the economy.

Historically, an increase in oil prices does correlate with a recession. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "nearly all post-World War II recessions were preceded by higher oil prices."

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To be clear, this doesn't mean a recession or bear market is imminent. If world leaders can agree on a resolution in Iran, oil prices may decrease, reducing the risk of an economic downturn. That said, the clock may still be ticking on the current bull market. Here's what history says.

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How long do bull markets last?

Generally speaking, bull markets tend to last far longer than bear markets. Since 1929, the average S&P 500 bear market has lasted about 286 days, or roughly 9.5 months, according to analysis from Bespoke Investment Group.

The average S&P 500 bull market, on the other hand, has lasted over 1,000 days. That amounts to just under three years.

The most recent bear market in the U.S was in 2022, spurred by runaway inflation. It began in January, and the S&P 500 bottomed out in mid-October. That means that the current bull market has lasted close to 1,300 days, or about 3.5 years.

Is a bear market coming in 2026?

In short: Nobody knows. History can help provide context to the market today, but it can't predict the future. So although the current bull market has already lasted longer than average, that doesn't necessarily mean that we're due for a downturn soon.

Bull markets have been trending longer in recent decades, which is promising for investors. The bull market between the end of the Great Recession and the market crash in early 2020 lasted a staggering 11 years. And the one before that lasted from 2002 to late 2007, or close to 2,000 days.

This doesn't mean we'll never face a recession. Downturns are a natural part of the market's cycle, so we're bound to experience a pullback eventually. That may happen later in 2026, or it could still be years away. Rather than trying to time the market and invest at just the right moment, it's generally safer to stay focused on the long term.

What investors can do right now

Investing in a well-diversified selection of stocks or funds can significantly lower your risk when we eventually face a recession or bear market. When you own at least a couple dozen stocks from a variety of industries, it's less likely that poor performance from a single company or sector will sink your entire portfolio.

Dollar-cost averaging can further reduce risk. This approach involves investing a set amount at regular intervals throughout the year. Sometimes, this means buying at record-high prices. But it also gives you the chance to buy at record-low prices during the dips, which can set you up for lucrative returns over time.

Even the worst bear markets typically only last a year or two, and while they can be tough to stomach in the moment, they're a blip on the radar over decades. By investing in strong stocks and staying invested for the long haul, your portfolio will reap the rewards of the many bull markets still to come.

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This article was originally published by The Motley Fool