US Makes Halting Progress Toward New Talks With Iran in Pakistan

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US Makes Halting Progress Toward New Talks With Iran in Pakistan.

watchlist :: 22hrs ago :: source - bloomberg

By Jeff Mason, Ben Bartenstein and Fiona MacDonald

US Makes Halting Progress Toward New Talks With Iran in Pakistan. Bloomberg news

(Bloomberg) -- The US made halting progress toward a second round of talks with Iran to end a war that’s spread through the Middle East, killed thousands of people and thrown energy markets into turmoil.

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US President Donald Trump said his vice president, JD Vance, is ready to leave for negotiations in Islamabad, but threatened to return to conflict if Iran doesn’t make a deal. For its part, Tehran didn’t confirm who, if anyone, would travel to the Pakistani capital. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation during the first round of talks earlier this month, said his country would not “accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.”

Trump said a two-week ceasefire with Iran will end on Wednesday evening Washington time and has signaled he is unlikely to extend it.

The president, in an interview on Monday, said he is “not going to be rushed into making a bad deal” and that a US naval blockade on Iranian ports would stay in place “until a deal is signed.”

Ghalibaf has similarly said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to most commercial traffic for now.

The standoff underscores the uncertainty surrounding fresh talks, even after Trump said negotiations could begin as early as Tuesday. The US president has threatened strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure if diplomacy fails. A pause in hostilities has mostly held for two weeks after a conflict that raged for more than a month, hurting Trump politically and leading to fears of faster inflation and slower economic growth.

Vance will leave for Pakistan for negotiations that are set to begin “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning,” Trump said. Vance is expected to be joined by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff.

“There’s going to be a meeting,” Trump said. “They want a meeting, and they should want a meeting. And it can work out well.”

It’s possible the sides reach a preliminary agreement to reopen Hormuz and end the US blockade, while leaving longer-term issues related to Iran’s nuclear and missile program to be resolved in later talks.

The president’s optimism contrasts with the tone of Iranian officials, a difference that became more pronounced after the US intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel. The Strait of Hormuz — through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports flowed before the war began in February — remains effectively shut. Iran said last week it would reopen to traffic, only to reverse the decision hours later as the blockade on its own ships persisted.

Iranian officials have stopped short of ruling out participation in the talks in Pakistan, reinforcing expectations that both sides are continuing to explore a deal. The conflict began on Feb. 28 when the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, saying it was necessary to prevent the Islamic Republic building a nuclear bomb. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, as well as on some ships in the Persian Gulf, effectively closing the Hormuz strait.

Oil fell slightly over 1% on Monday, with Brent trading at $94.40 a barrel, after a report that Iran would be sending a team to Islamabad for the peace talks. Brent crude is still about a third more costly than before the war began.

Beyond Hormuz, another fraught issue is Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has demanded that Iran forswear any ambitions for a nuclear weapon and hand over stockpiles of enriched uranium. Tehran has balked at giving up its uranium and has said its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Trump and advisers see his varying comments about what might happen if the ceasefire deadline lapses as creating strategic ambiguity that the US could exploit in talks, said a White House official, who requested anonymity to describe internal thinking.

Yet that uncertainty could create misunderstandings with Iranian negotiators, who are also grappling with internal divisions among the country’s leaders.

Conservative elements within the Iranian government and military leadership, including those at the top of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have taken the continuation of the US blockade as a further signal that Trump can’t be trusted, according to US and Iranian officials.

The IRGC’s leader, Ahmad Vahidi, is pushing for a tough negotiating stance, people familiar with the dynamics said.

There is a divide between the likes of Vahidi and less ideological figures, such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who are more inclined to reach an accord with Washington, said the US and Iranian officials, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Trump is also facing pressure at home to end the war, with polls showing most Americans disapproving of the conflict. The president campaigned on keeping the US out of foreign entanglements and lowering consumer prices, two pledges strained by his decision to start the war.

Earlier: Pakistan Prepares for Possible Second Round of US-Iran Talks

He has sought to assuage those worries, insisting that fuel prices will fall quickly once the war ends and that the US is not embroiled in a quagmire. US gasoline pump prices have risen above $4 a gallon on average — the highest level in almost four years — and Trump’s energy secretary, Chris Wright, said they might remain at $3 or more until next year.

The conflict has already stretched beyond the four-to-six-week timeline Trump initially set, and he has repeatedly suggested the conflict was nearing a conclusion. At the same time, he’s urged Americans to have patience, noting that other US wars dragged on for years.

“Vietnam lasted how many decades, right? Vietnam lasted years. Afghanistan lasted years. They all lasted years,” Trump said. “I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal by treasonous senators and treasonous congresspeople.”

--With assistance from Elaine To, Thomas Hall, Jon Herskovitz and Arsalan Shahla.